Draft grades always come with a bit of caution. Right now, the only thing we can really evaluate is value based on where players were selected compared to how they were ranked across major boards. That gives us a sense of whether the Colts let the board fall to them or reached for need. The actual quality of these picks, though, won’t be known for at least two to three years once these players are on the field and developing.
CJ Allen, LB, taken 53rd overall
• 45th by ESPN
• 38th by NFL Mock Draft Database (consensus)
• 32nd by Daniel Jeremiah (NFL.com)
• 18th by PFF
• 17th by Andrew Aziz
Allen graded out as one of the best value picks the Colts made. Every major board had him comfortably inside the top 50, with most closer to the 30 range. Getting him at 53 means the Colts let the board come to them and landed a player who slipped for no real reason based on public evaluation.
Big Value
AJ Haulcy, S, taken 78th overall
• 56th by ESPN
• 58th by NFL Mock Draft Database
• 64th by Daniel Jeremiah (NFL.com)
• 52nd by PFF
• 41st by Andrew Aziz
Haulcy is another clean value pick. The rankings are very tight across the board, mostly sitting in the 50–60 range. Sliding to 78 gave the Colts a player who should have gone a full round earlier based on consensus. It’s the type of pick that shows discipline.
Value
Jalen Farmer, OL, taken 113th overall
• 123rd by ESPN
• 99th by NFL Mock Draft Database
• 95th by Daniel Jeremiah (NFL.com)
• 88th by PFF
• Outside top 100 (125–150 range) by Andrew Aziz
Farmer lands right around where he was expected to go. Some boards had him inside the top 100, while others pushed him into the mid-Day 3 range. The Colts essentially split the difference here. It’s not a steal, but it’s a reasonable pick with some slight upside depending on which board you trust more.
Fair / Slight Value
Bryce Boettcher, LB, taken 135th overall
• 151st by ESPN
• Outside top 100 by NFL Mock Draft Database
• 102nd by Daniel Jeremiah (NFL.com)
• 135th by PFF
• 115–130 range by Andrew Aziz
Boettcher feels like a true “board match” selection. There’s some variance in rankings, but most projections land him in this general range. The Colts didn’t reach, but they also didn’t steal one here. It’s a steady, logical Day 3 pick.
Fair
George Gumbs Jr., EDGE, taken 156th overall
• 166th by ESPN
• Outside top 100 by NFL Mock Draft Database
• Outside top 150 by Daniel Jeremiah
• 211th by PFF
• 175–225 range by Andrew Aziz
Gumbs is maybe the only pick that leans toward a reach. Most boards had him going later, some significantly later. It’s not egregious at this point in the draft, but the Colts clearly valued him more than the consensus. This is a traits-over-consensus type of selection.
Reach
Caden Curry, EDGE, taken 214th overall
• 164th by ESPN
• Outside top 100 by NFL Mock Draft Database
• Outside top 150 by Daniel Jeremiah
• 189th by PFF
• 175–225 range by Andrew Aziz
Curry sits right in the range where late-round picks tend to flatten out. Some boards had him a bit higher, others closer to where he was taken. There’s no strong argument either way. This is a fine depth pick with reasonable value.
Fair
Seth McGowan, RB, taken 237th overall
• 182nd by ESPN
• Outside top 100 by NFL Mock Draft Database
• Outside top 150 by Daniel Jeremiah
• 127th by PFF
• 200–250 range by Andrew Aziz
McGowan trends slightly toward value, mainly because PFF and ESPN were higher on him than where he ultimately went. My board had him closer to this range, so it balances out a bit. Still, getting him near the end of the draft gives the Colts a low-risk upside play.
Value
Deion Burks, WR, taken 254th overall
• 81st by ESPN
• 100th by NFL Mock Draft Database
• 70th by Daniel Jeremiah (NFL.com)
• 78th by PFF
• 31st by Andrew Aziz
Burks is the outlier in the entire class. Every major board had him as a Day 2 player, some even higher. Getting him at 254 is borderline absurd from a value standpoint. When a player falls this far, there are usually underlying concerns, but strictly based on rankings, this is one of the biggest steals of the draft.
Big Value
