The Colorado Rockies are off to a strong start.

The pitching has been surprisingly solid as a whole, and the lineup has seen good performances from Hunter Goodman, Mickey Moniak, and Edouard Julien.

It hasn’t all been perfect, however. Tyler Freeman, TJ Rumfield, and Kyle Karros have shown some good signs amongst their overall mixed start, but the list of outright disappointments for this team so far is astonishingly small.

Given his track record the biggest underperformance so far for the 2026 Rockies is probably Ezequiel Tovar and the .193/.228/.294 triple slash line he had heading into Wednesday.

The obvious answer as to what is holding Tovar’s offensive potential back is easy to diagnose: He chases too many pitches outside the zone. So far this season, he leads the league in terms of swinging at pitches outside the zone with a mind boggling 48.7% chase rate.

That’s right, Tovar is swinging at just under half of the would-be balls he sees.

The thing is, that’s not really too different from his career averages.

Swinging at pitches he shouldn’t be has been Tovar’s most obvious flaw for his entire career. During his 3.7 fWAR season in 2024, he had a 44.1% Chase %, which was second in MLB behind only Ceddanne Rafaela of the Red Sox. It has been worse in 2026, but not by a significant margin that would explain the stark difference in productivity between the two seasons.

What’s interesting is that Tovar is actually making contact with pitches outside the zone more than he ever has. His chase contact rate has ballooned from being in the 46-48% range each of the past three seasons all the way up to 57.9% so far this year.

That sounds like a good thing. However, simply making contact with the ball does not necessarily mean it’s just a matter of time before his BABIP luck evens out. That may be some of it — as his overall BABIP is noticeably lower than his career average — but the quality of the contact also needs to be addressed.

In 2026, he is fouling off 25.1% of all pitches he sees while all of his previous seasons were in the 22% range. To go along with that spike in foul balls, his hard hit % has dropped nearly 3%, his average exit velocity has decreased nearly 2 mph, and his line drive percentage has dropped nearly 7%.

The biggest year-over-year change in Tovar’s stat line is his first-pitch swing percentage. In 2024, Tovar began 68.2% of his plate appearances with a strike, in 2025 he did so on 66.4%, and so far in 2026, it has been a truly wild 77.2%. That is a substantial increase, and all of it is accounted for by his 12.9% increase in first-pitch swings up to 59.6%.

Essentially, Tovar seems to be firing at the first pitch, finding himself behind in the count, and quickly adopting a two-strike mentality where he tries to fight off all the borderline pitches. This is a recipe for lots of contact without any productive results to show for it.

The solution is clearly for him to get better plate discipline, see the ball better, and make better swing decisions.

That’s much easier said than done.

We’ve now got over three seasons worth of data on Tovar, and it’s safe to say his poor plate discipline is part of his game and here to stay. He’s not suddenly going to become a patient hitter.

With all of that being said, the place to start is probably trying to get him to agree to simply not swing at the first pitch unless it’s a meatball right down the middle. This would likely give him some breathing room later in the count and reduce the strikeout pressure on every pitch. That one simple change is likely not a magic bullet to solve all of his problems but it absolutely would help.

On the Farm

Triple-A:Albuquerque Isotopes 6, El Paso Chihuahuas 7

A close game in which the Isotopes fell just short of catching up to the early runs from the Chihuahuas. Parker Mushinkski did not perform well as the opener and was pulled after only two outs and three runs. Gabriel Hughes pitched the bulk of the innings and allowed another four runs alongside eight strikeouts. The offensive side was more favorable with both Sterlin Thompson and Cole Carrigg reaching base three times and Carrigg even stole three bags.

Double-A:Hartford Yard Goats 6, Reading Fightin Phils 2

Pitching and the long ball was the story of the night in Reading. The Yard Goats scored six runs on only six hits and five walks thanks to home runs from all of Bryant Betancourt, Aidan Longwell, and Roc Riggio. On the mound Konnor Eaton, Carlos Torres, Austin Smith, and Sam Weatherly completed the nine inning relay race only allowing two runs while striking out twelve despite none of them pitching more than four innings.

High-A:Spokane Indians 1, Eugene Emeralds 3

Jeff Criswell made his first official appearance on a rehab assignment after undergoing Tommy John surgery early last year. Given that it was his first appearance back, the two runs allowed were less important a measure than simply the fact that he was able to get through a full inning. He was followed by six great innings from Jackson Cox who struck out nine and only allowed one more run. At the plate, the best performance was from Tevin Tucker who had a walk, double, and stolen base.

Low-A:Fresno Grizzlies 9, Stockton Ports 8

This wasn’t quite a pitchers duel. JB Middleton walked six in 2.2 innings to start off the game for the Yard Goats but Seth Clausen did record a perfect two inning save to preserve the lineup’s hard work. At the plate there were more good performances than not: Clayton Gray was on base four times, Clayton Fossum had two doubles, Roldy Brito had a couple hits including a double. The thing you really want to see, however, is Ethan Holliday at the plate with the bases loaded in the second inning.

Rockies Already Seeing Immediate Returns From Edouard Julien Trade | SI.com

Seth Dowdle takes a quick look at Edouard Julien’s career leading up to his trade to Colorado this offseason and how that has led into his hot start with the Rockies. Dowdle gives credit to the Paul DePodesta-led front office for identifying Julien as exactly the type of bat this team needed.

Strike 2: Former No. 1 overall draft pick Moniak might become an All-Star for the Rockies | Mile High Sports

Mark Knudson, on the other hand, gives credit where it’s due to the Bill Schmidt-led front office for having taken a chance on Mickey Moniak after a poor start to his career. Knudson makes the case that Moniak could end up being the Rockies representative at the All-Star game this year, which is only really in question because of how many other players are also off to hot starts.

Feltner begins throwing program, hoping to avoid Minor League rehab | MLB.com

Thomas Harding talked with Ryan Feltner about being placed on the Injured List and his next steps. Feltner does not make his injury sound overly serious and appears to be attempting to follow in the footsteps of José Quintana and Kyle Freeland with a minimum stay on the IL.

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