Michael Harris II was seen favoring his ailing quad during last night’s win over the Tigers, and as such, it’s not surprising to see him get another breather in a short turnaround matinee game, especially given that Framber Valdez throws with his left hand. The absence of Harris is part of a wholesale rejiggering of the bottom of the order on getaway day: Kyle Farmer starts at DH and hits seventh, Jorge Mateo is in at shortstop and hitting eighth while Mauricio Dubon moves to left field, and Eli White will man center and hopefully not have another nightmarish miscue that directly leads to a loss.
The Tigers are largely starting familiar faces, though the well-hitting Dillon Dingler will get a rest as Jake Rogers takes over with the tools of ignorance. It remains a fairly terrifying top half of the lineup for Detroit that Bryce Elder will have to navigate — Martin Perez and JR Ritchie did okay-ish, so we’ll see if Elder can do his part.
There’s not very much familiarity here between Elder and the Detroit batters. Only five batters in the lineup have faced him, none have more than six PAs, and the collective line is a .224 wOBA and .297 xwOBA in a whopping 17 PAs. Ho-hum.
On the flip side, the Braves have a fair bit of familiarity with Valdez given his veteran status (plus, Mauricio Dubon was his teammate for a while). Matt Olson, White, Mateo, and Ozzie Albies all have double-digit PAs against him — Albies has crushed him with a .553 wOBA / .400 xwOBA. Really, there’s mostly good history here among everyone except Dubon and Drake Baldwin (who haven’t faced Valdez yet), with a collective .344 wOBA and .330 xwOBA in 79 PAs. Austin Riley, Albies, and Farmer have also gotten some key knocks off Valdez in their shared postseason history.
As a bit of personal amusement, this will be Kyle Farmer’s first start of the year. He has 10 PAs so far this season, with a 92 wRC+ that comes from outhitting his xwOBA a bit.
