The first-round of the 2026 NBA Playoffs already felt like a war of attrition. Star players were dropping left and right, and in some cases changing the outcome of series. It’s starting to feel like the healthiest team will ultimately be the last team standing as the second round begins.
The Boston Celtics were a popular pick to win the East heading into the playoffs. Now they’re out after the Philadelphia 76ers pulled off a shocking Game 7 victory with injured star Jayson Tatum on the bench. The Denver Nuggets were a trendy pick to win the championship a couple weeks ago. Instead, the team looked old, slow, and soft as they were boat-raced by the Timberwolves despite significant injuries to Anthony Edwards and Donte DiVincenzo.
Let’s rank the final eight teams still standing in the 2026 NBA Playoffs by their championship chances.
8. Los Angeles Lakers
Will Luka Doncic play in the second-round? It’s a question that hangs over the Lakers series with the Thunder. Los Angeles didn’t need him in round one against a pathetic Rockets’ offense, but the matchup with OKC will obviously be a much bigger challenge. Austin Reaves’ return to the lineup from his own soft tissue injury is an encouraging sign, but he’s about to face a stiff test against the Thunder’s legion of elite perimeter defenders. The Lakers know they have a sharp head coach in JJ Redick and a genius 41-year-old legend in LeBron James who should be able to find every vulnerability in the Thunder — but actually winning the series feels almost impossible with Luka still on the mend. The Lakers should feel great about getting this far, and this matchup with OKC will tell them where they need to improve this summer even if they ultimately fall short.
7. Philadelphia 76ers
The Sixers are a different team with Joel Embiid healthy and engaged, and they proved it in their shocking first-round victory over the Celtics. Embiid looked well-rested coming back from appendicitis, and he destroyed a weak Boston frontcourt when it mattered. He’ll have a much tougher matchup against the Knicks in round two, but his one-on-one scoring is still a huge advantage in the series for Philly. Tyrese Maxey also bolstered his reputation in the first-round, and his ability to play huge minutes at a superstar level is so impressive. VJ Edgecombe ripped five three-pointers in Game 7 to continue his fantastic rookie season, and his athleticism could give the taller Knicks’ wing defenders problems in round two. Anything feels possible in the East right now even if the Knicks are the favorites. Philly should like its chances around Embiid, Maxey, and Edgecombe.
6. Minnesota Timberwolves
The Wolves’ first-round series win against the Nuggets was the ultimate vindication for their core, but sadly it came at a cost with Donte DiVincenzo tearing his Achilles and Anthony Edwards suffering a hyperextension and bone bruise in his left knee. Edwards is somehow expected to play in Game 1 vs. the Spurs, and Minnesota will need him to regain top form in quick order. Rudy Gobert just humbled Nikola Jokic, and now he draws an arguably even tougher assignment against his younger and more athletic countryman in Victor Wembanyama. If Gobert can somehow out-play Wemby the way he just outplayed Jokic, the Wolves will have a chance. It feels like Minnesota may have found something with the former Illinois Fighting Illini duo of Ayo Dosunmu and Terrence Shannon Jr. in the last round, and both will need to provide consistent scoring given the team’s other injuries. It’s too bad we can’t see the Wolves fully healthy in this matchup against the Spurs, because that would have been electric. At this point, we should know better than to count out Minnesota even with the chips stacked against them. The Wolves have the length, athleticism, and experience to rattle anyone, but it feels like they have their work cut out for them against San Antonio.
5. Cleveland Cavaliers
The Cavs and Raptors were tied in aggregate score through 6.5 games before Cleveland dropped the hammer in the third quarter of Game 7 to avoid an embarrassing exit and advance to the second-round. The series never should have been that close. Cleveland has the pieces for a long playoff run after trading for James Harden at the deadline, but head coach Kenny Atkinson is still tinkering with his rotation and trying to maximize his lineups. Donovan Mitchell didn’t have a great series, and it’s hard to imagine the Cavs reaching their potential if he’s unable to find his All-NBA level from the regular season. Cleveland has a higher offensive ceiling than Detroit in their second-round matchup, but there’s no guaranteeing they’ll reach it, especially against an elite defense. At this point in the season, the Cavs should really know what they have, but it still doesn’t feel like it.
4. Detroit Pistons
The first-round was shaping up to be a disaster for the Pistons as they trailed the No. 8 seed Orlando Magic 3-1 before Franz Wagner injured his calf. That injury proved to be a turning point, and Detroit survived to set up their second-round matchup with the Cavs. Detroit was expected to have problems scoring in the halfcourt entering the postseason to some degree, and the struggle was real against an impressive Magic defense. Cleveland will pose different challenges, but the Pistons’ success still begins and ends with Cade Cunningham. The former No. 1 overall pick isn’t the most efficient scorer and he continues to have some turnover problems, but he’s a battering ram lead guard who can handle heavy usage while also contributing to an elite defense. Jalen Duren badly needs to roar back to form after a terrible first-round series, and it will be interesting to see if the Cavs can take away his rolls to the rim like Cleveland did. Detroit should feel very fortunate to still be playing, but Cleveland is a winnable matchup.
3. New York Knicks
It might have taken the Knicks six games to eliminate the Atlanta Hawks in round one, but they still won the series by an unfathomable 105 points in the aggregate. New York showed what this team can look like when its firing on all cylinders, with Jalen Brunson’s deadly 1-on-1 scoring, Karl-Anthony Towns’ versatile offensive skill set, and OG Anunoby’s lockdown wing defense and efficient scoring forming a strong foundation for a contender. Can the Knicks’ role players step up around them? This feels like it will be a key series for both Mitchell Robinson and Miles McBride, with Robinson needing to help limit Joel Embiid’s scoring and McBride balancing lineups with more shooting and likely drawing the assignment on Tyrese Maxey for stretches. The East is almost setting up a little too well for the Knicks. This season has been a Finals-or-bust from the start, and with the Celtics out of the way, New York is the clear favorite in the conference.
2. San Antonio Spurs
The Spurs saw their championship chances flash before their eyes when Victor Wembanyama banged his head on the floor during Game 2 of their first-round series against the Blazers. Somehow, he only missed one game with a concussion, and the Spurs looked dominant with him with a +13.3 on/off net-rating for the series. Wembanyama is a one-man wrecking crew, but the Spurs’ role players are also stepping up at the right time. Julian Champagnie ripped 62 percent of his threes against Portland, and will be a key shooter going forward. Rookie guard Dylan Harper took over Game 3, and showed why he’s a future All-Star in this league. Luke Kornet is rock solid as a backup center, and the Celtics have to be regretting letting him walk right now. De’Aaron Fox also looked more assertive when Wemby was in a more limited role in his return from the head injury, and that’s a great sign going forward for San Antonio. The reality is that the Spurs are a viable threat to win it all as long as Wembanyama is upright. The playoffs are setting up for an epic series in the Western Conference Finals vs. the Thunder.
1. Oklahoma City Thunder
The defending champs were the only team that made it look easy in the first-round, and their reward for a sweep against the Suns was an eight-day break before facing the Lakers. The Thunder still felt the carnage of the playoffs with Jalen Williams suffering a hamstring strain that puts his availability in question going forward, but OKC essentially played without him all year, and remains the favorites even if he can’t go. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was sensational in round one by scoring 33.8 points per game on 67.8 percent true shooting, and he’s set up for another huge series against a Lakers team without a natural defensive matchup for him. OKC’s defense is set up to thrive against the Lakers, too. It finished No. 1 in efficiency in both the regular season and playoffs on the way to a championship last season, and that might happen again this year after being a hair better during the 82-game marathon this season. The Thunder’s formula for success of SGA + an elite defense is so sustainable even without Williams. It shouldn’t matter if Luka Doncic returns for this series. The Thunder will roll either way.
