Another chapter is being written in the age-old battle of Man vs. Machine, with this one revolving around the 2026 NFL Draft.
The challenge: USA TODAY reporter Chris Bumbaca was tasked with crafting a first-round 2026 NFL mock draft. Yours truly had AI chatbot Microsoft Copilot do the same, via a two-prompt sequence that asked it to create a first-round mock using only players who had declared for this year's draft.
This was a continuation of an experiment which saw Bumbaca and the chatbot face off ahead of what was a more predictable 2025 NFL Draft. The expert proved to be the winner of that battle, correctly prognosticating seven picks to the AI chatbot's five.
Will we see a repeat of that result in 2026? A modified scoring system – which will award one point for predicting the correct player-slash-team match and an additional point for correctly guessing where a player is picked, regardless of what team selects him – could give Copilot a better chance of competing for the title, though some of its bolder picks could ultimately hamstring its efforts.
One notable rule, for this mock draft exercise: trades were not permitted. It was difficult enough to get the chatbot to correctly follow the established parameters for the exercise, so throwing trades into the mix could have created more chaos.
Without further ado, here are the results of the "Expert vs. AI mock draft," including Bumbaca's analysis and my translation of Copilot's logic.
2026 NFL mock draft: AI vs. Expert first-round picks
1. Las Vegas Raiders
• Expert pick: QB Fernando Mendoza, Indiana
Any explanation needed? This has been a lock for months and hopefully, for the Raiders' sake, he is the QB1 of the future. – Bumbaca
• AI pick: QB Fernando Mendoza, Indiana
Looks like Copilot agrees with you, Boom! It offered that Mendoza was a "clear QB1" and there would be "no mystery" with the first pick. Let's move forward. – Camenker
2. New York Jets
• Expert pick: LB Arvell Reese, Ohio State
Reese vs. David Bailey is the first inflection point of the draft. I like Reese's upside more despite the production pedigree. – Bumbaca
• AI pick: LB Arvell Reese, Ohio State
Copilot had a similar analysis of the Reese vs. Bailey debate. It praised Reese's "elite versatility" but also noted it believes he is "pro-ready," a label that has more often been given to Bailey. – Camenker
3. Arizona Cardinals
• Expert pick: Edge David Bailey, Texas Tech
Perhaps the best pure pass-rusher in the draft finds a home in the desert. – Bumbaca
• AI pick: Edge David Bailey, Texas Tech
Of the bat, AI and the expert are 3-for-3 in agreeing. It's mocking the Cardinals an "explosive pass rusher with elite first step." Hard to argue with that analysis of Bailey. – Camenker
4. Tennessee Titans
• Expert pick: RB Jeremiyah Love, Notre Dame
A top-five pick on a running back? This guy is worth it and gels with the personality of head coach Robert Saleh and offensive coordinator Brian Daboll. – Bumbaca
• AI pick: LB Sonny Styles, Ohio State
Here's Copilot's first deviation from the consensus. Rather than Love, the AI chatbot has the Titans taking Styles, a "plug-and-play" linebacker with great "instincts, range and leadership." Saleh enjoyed success coaching Fred Warner, so Styles would fit well in his defense. – Camenker
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5. New York Giants
• Expert pick: LB Sonny Styles, Ohio State
The Giants have plenty of needs. Picking up an off-ball linebacker who can actually impact plays would mark a concerted effort in that department for the first time in 15 years for "Big Blue." – Bumbaca
• AI pick: S Caleb Downs, Ohio State
With Styles off the board, Copilot gave the Giants another Ohio State product. It likes the idea of Downs becoming a "tone‑setter" for John Harbaugh's defense. Makes sense. – Camenker
6. Cleveland Browns
• Expert pick: WR Carnell Tate, Ohio State
WR1 in the draft goes to a place where the quarterbacks – plural – need as much help as they can get. – Bumbaca
• AI pick: RB Jeremiyah Love, Notre Dame
Copilot is also giving the Browns help but in a... different way. Cleveland spent the 36th pick in the 2025 NFL Draft on Quinshon Judkins, but that didn't stop the AI chatbot from giving the Browns a three-down playmaker who would give the team "elite offensive juice." That may be true, but this fit seems far-fetched. – Camenker
7. Washington Commanders
• Expert pick: S Caleb Downs, Ohio State
Dan Quinn's defenses emphasize takeaways, and the back end has been subpar ever since he took over two seasons ago. – Bumbaca
• AI pick: Edge Rueben Bain Jr., Miami (FL)
OK, back to normal with this pick. Bain has great "power and speed off the edge," according to Copilot, and believes he will be a natural fit for Washington's defensive rebuild. Bain joining free agent acquisitions Odafe Oweh and K'Lavon Chaisson would provide the Commanders with quite a boost to their edge rush. – Camenker
8. New Orleans Saints
• Expert pick: WR Makai Lemon, USC
Can't go wrong on defense, but why wouldn't you try to accentuate Tyler Shough after his promising rookie season? – Bumbaca
• AI pick: DT Peter Woods, Clemson
Well, maybe the Saints can go a bit wrong on defense. Copilot is giving them a defensive tackle – which the team could use – but this is a bit early for Woods, who had just five sacks across three seasons at Clemson despite his immense potential. Copilot praised Woods' "rare strength and athleticism," but this is undoubtedly a reach. – Camenker
9. Kansas City Chiefs
• Expert pick: Edge Rueben Bain Jr., Miami (FL)
The Chiefs need a presence on the edge. Between arm-length debates and the recent revelation that he was the driver in a fatal car accident two years ago, it feels like an Andy Reid pick. – Bumbaca
• AI pick: CB Mansoor Delane, LSU
The Chiefs have a massive need at cornerback after losing Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson during the offseason, and Copilot thinks the "physical, SEC-tested" Delane is the perfect fit for that role. It's hard to argue with that, even if Reid's strategy is typically to target trench players early. – Camenker
10. New York Giants
• Expert pick: OT Francis Mauigoa, Miami (FL)
John Harbaugh should use this extra first-rounder to build through the trenches. – Bumbaca
• AI pick: WR Carnell Tate, Ohio State
Copilot wanted to give the Giants an "offensive complement to Malik Nabers" and a quality weapon for Jaxson Dart. Tate would certainly accomplish that goal. – Camenker
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11. Miami Dolphins
• Expert pick: CB Mansoor Delane, LSU
What is the Dolphins' long-term plan? Tough to say given their busy offseason. Going with the top corner in the draft at good value outside of No. 11 is not a bad start, though. – Bumbaca
• AI pick: CB Jermod McCoy, Tennessee
Hey, look at that. For the first time since the third pick, Bumbaca and Copilot are close to agreeing on something. Delane is off the board for the AI chatbot, but it still wanted to give Jeff Hafley a quality, No. 1 cornerback, which makes sense given the team's lack of proven talent at the position. The lone question is whether McCoy will be medically cleared by Miami after missing the entire 2025 college season while recovering from a torn ACL. – Camenker
12. Dallas Cowboys
• Expert pick: Edge Keldric Faulk, Auburn
The Cowboys remaining at No. 12 feels far-fetched, but they will seek pass-rush ability in this first round. – Bumbaca
• AI pick: Edge Keldric Faulk, Auburn
A full-out agreement? How about that? Faulk has "massive upside" and makes a ton of sense for a Cowboys team desperate for a top-end pass rusher. Well done, Copilot. – Camenker
13. Los Angeles Rams (from Atlanta)
• Expert pick: WR Jordyn Tyson, Arizona State
Sean McVay wants to keep gas in the Ferrari. Tyson's injury history warrants concern. Still, I could also see them trading up to get their guy. – Bumbaca
• AI pick: OT Francis Mauigoa, Miami (FL)
Wide receiver has been the popular projection for the Rams, but Copilot is deviating from the consensus to give them Mauigoa. The Miami product is a potential plug-and-play right tackle, so perhaps he could challenge Warren McClendon for playing time at the position. – Camenker
14. Baltimore Ravens
• Expert pick: OT Spencer Fano
The Ravens' offensive line has taken serious steps in the wrong direction in recent seasons. Here's to getting back on track. – Bumbaca
• AI pick: S Dillon Thieneman, Oregon
Copilot called Thieneman an "instinctive ballhawk," but do the Ravens really need a safety? After spending a 2025 first-round pick on Malaki Starks and with Kyle Hamilton in the fold, probably not. Bumbaca's projected pick is far more likely. – Camenker
15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
• Expert pick: TE Kenyon Sadiq, Oregon
Another weapon for Baker Mayfield – necessary after Mike Evans' departure – and an ideal complement to Cade Otton. – Bumbaca
• AI pick: OT Kadyn Proctor, Alabama
The Buccaneers have Tristan Wirfs and Luke Goedeke entrenched as their starting tackles. Unless they're planning to move the 6-7, 352-pound Proctor inside to guard, it's hard to imagine this fit coming to fruition. – Camenker
16. New York Jets (from Indianapolis)
• Expert pick: WR Omar Cooper Jr., Indiana
One of my favorite players in the draft, Cooper Jr. is ideal Garrett Wilson insurance and has already shown he can make big plays in big games. – Bumbaca
• AI pick: QB Ty Simpson, Alabama
Copilot likes the idea of giving the Jets a "high‑ceiling developmental QB" with their second, first-round pick. Simpson is the clear-cut No. 2 quarterback in this year's draft, and his combination of accuracy and pocket presence gives him potential for the next level. – Camenker
17. Detroit Lions
• Expert pick: OT Monroe Freeling, Georgia
Detroit needs to address the tackle spot and Freeling should be the next-best available option for them. – Bumbaca
• AI pick: Edge T.J. Parker, Clemson
Most draft analysts have the Lions going with an offensive tackle. Copilot has the Lions going with Parker, a "smooth athlete with bend and explosion," to upgrade its edge rush. Detroit needs a long-term partner for Aidan Hutchinson, so this is within the realm of possibility. – Camenker
18. Minnesota Vikings
• Expert pick: S Dillon Thieneman, Oregon
Goodbye, Harrison Smith; hello, Mr. Thieneman, who has the tape showing he can thrive in Brian Flores' system. – Bumbaca
• AI pick: WR Omar Cooper Jr., Indiana
Cooper over Jordyn Tyson and Makai Lemon? That's a bold choice, Copilot. It likes Cooper's "production, physicality and strong hands," but this fit is unlikely. Minnesota has too many defensive needs to target a receiver – who would be the team's No. 3 behind Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison– in the first round. – Camenker
19. Carolina Panthers
• Expert pick: WR KC Concepcion, Texas A&M
Bryce Young needs as much help as GM Dan Morgan will give him … aka a third-straight Round 1 WR. – Bumbaca
• AI pick: LB Anthony Hill Jr., Texas
Whoa. Hill has largely been mocked as a second-round prospect, but Copilot has the Panthers taking him 19th overall. He may have "sideline‑to‑sideline speed and high football IQ," but would Carolina really take him this early after signing Devin Lloyd to a big-money deal? That seems unlikely.
20. Dallas Cowboys (from Green Bay)
• Expert pick: CB Jermod McCoy, Tennessee
The Cowboys go defense again to shore up the backend and take the corner who fell too far because of injury concerns. – Bumbaca
• AI pick: G Billy Schrauth, Notre Dame
Yikes. Copilot is starting to lose the plot a bit. Schrauth checks in at 119th on USA TODAY Sports' top 150 big board and doesn't even fill a need for the Cowboys, who have Tyler Smith and Tyler Booker entrenched as their starting guards. Hopefully, this pick remains the chatbot's biggest head-scratcher. – Camenker
21. Pittsburgh Steelers
• Expert pick: G/C Olaivavega Ioane, Penn State
The best interior offensive lineman in the draft goes to a team that could start him Week 1 at left guard. – Bumbaca
• AI pick: WR Denzel Boston, Washington
All right, Copilot is back on track. The Steelers traded for Michael Pittman Jr. during the offseason, but could still use a third receiver for their unit. The chatbot likes Boston's fit in Pittsburgh as a "vertical threat with big‑play speed." Pairing the 6-4 playmaker with DK Metcalf would make for an intimidating receiver room, even if Boston isn't likely to go ahead of Tyson and Lemon. – Camenker
22. Los Angeles Chargers
• Expert pick: Edge Akheem Mesidor, Miami (FL)
The Chargers could use a partner and successor for 35-year-old Khalil Mack, and Mesidor is the best edge rusher still available. – Bumbaca
• AI pick: TE Kenyon Sadiq, Oregon
Justin Herbert loves throwing to his tight ends. That's why Copilot was excited to give the Chargers a "mismatch weapon" like Sadiq. He probably won't make it to this pick, but the sentiment is nice. – Camenker
23. Philadelphia Eagles
• Expert pick: OT Max Iheanachor, Arizona State
Future Lane Johnson replacement? Philadelphia enjoys an O-line development project. – Bumbaca
• AI pick: DT Christen Miller, Georgia
Copilot also expects to see the Eagles "stockpile trench dominance" during the draft but has Philadelphia targeting a defensive lineman. Miller has been mocked more frequently as a Day 2 pick, but this wouldn't be an egregious reach. – Camenker
24. Cleveland Browns (from Jacksonville)
• Expert pick: OT Kadyn Proctor, Alabama
The Browns went receiver early, so they need to go O-line later in the round. – Bumbaca
• AI pick: OT Spencer Fano, Utah
Copilot also expects the Browns to target an offensive tackle, but it chose Fano with Proctor off the board. It's feasible neither of these players will be on the board with the 24th overall pick, but at least the expert and AI are in lockstep about the position Cleveland should target. – Camenker
25. Chicago Bears
• Expert pick: Edge T.J. Parker, Clemson
For a team that overperformed last year, picking someone who can rush the quarterback is never a bad idea. – Bumbaca
• AI pick: WR Makai Lemon, USC
Copilot has Lemon coming off the board after Cooper and Boston. Does it know something we don't, or is it secretly a Bears fan? Whatever its reasoning, Chicago would be happy to land an "explosive YAC threat" like Lemon to help replace DJ Moore. – Camenker
26. Buffalo Bills
• Expert pick: Edge Malachi Lawrence, UCF
Could the Bills go offense in head coach Joe Brady's first season? Absolutely. I'm not sure the impact player they crave will remain on the board, so they should rejuvenate the pass rush that must get younger. – Bumbaca
• AI pick: CB Avieon Terrell, Clemson
Copilot is giving the Bills a "smooth cover corner" to further upgrade its secondary. Buffalo spent a first-round pick last season on Max Hairston, but adding Terrell to help replace Taron Johnson would be a great move. – Camenker
27. San Francisco 49ers
• Expert pick: OT Caleb Lomu, Utah
Trent Williams isn't getting any younger. Lomu is a good athlete and can take over at left tackle once Williams calls it a career. – Bumbaca
• AI pick: G/C Olaivavega Ioane, Penn State
If Ioane makes it to San Francisco's pick at 27, the 49ers would likely sprint in the card given their need at left guard. That said, while Copilot has this happening, it's hard to imagine Ioane lasting this long. – Camenker
28. Houston Texans
• Expert pick: OT Blake Miller, Clemson
The Texans' offensive line has been the team's weakness for a while. – Bumbaca
• AI pick: CB Malik Muhammad, Texas
This is early for Muhammad, who checks in at No. 91 overall on USA TODAY Sports' top 150 big board. Copilot characterized him as an "aggressive press corner" who could improve Houston's depth at the position, but he's more of a Day 2 fit for the team. – Camenker
29. Kansas City Chiefs (from Los Angeles)
• Expert pick: CB Chris Johnson, San Diego State
Since they took care of the front with their first pick of the round, the Chiefs should address the secondary here and Johnson could fill in nicely for the departed Trent McDuffie. – Bumbaca
• AI pick: WR Zachariah Branch, Georgia
Look, would it be fun to see Branch – a wide-out with "elite speed and return ability" – pair with Patrick Mahomes? Absolutely. But like Muhammad, he's more of a Day 2 talent. And Jordyn Tyson is still on the board in Copilot's mock, so having Branch come off the board ahead of him is nonsensical. – Camenker
30. Miami Dolphins (from Denver)
• Expert pick: WR Denzel Boston, Washington
If I were running the Dolphins, I'd keep trading back both of my first-round selections. But if they do pick, a wideout who can take the top off the defense could be an asset to Malik Willis immediately. – Bumbaca
• AI pick: CB Colton Hood, Tennessee
It seems Copilot really wants to upgrade Miami's cornerback room. The chatbot has the Dolphins taking both Tennessee cornerbacks with their two, first-round selections. That would certainly give Miami a needed infusion of talent at the position, but it's hard to imagine the team double-dipping at cornerback with major needs at wide receiver and along the offensive line. – Camenker
31. New England Patriots
• Expert pick: Edge Zion Young, Missouri
New England needs size and production off the edge. At 6-foot-6, Young will do. – Bumbaca
• AI pick: LB Taurean York, Texas A&M
Copilot had to get in one more shocker before we finished up. York is just 5-11, 227 pounds and is ranked 127th on USA TODAY Sports' top 150 big board because of those frame concerns. Nonetheless, Copilot thinks the "high‑character, high‑motor linebacker" is a good fit for Mike Vrabel's defense. He well might be, but not until the middle rounds of the draft. – Camenker
32. Seattle Seahawks
• Expert pick: S Emmanuel McNeil-Warren, Toledo
Losing Coby Bryant in free agency, the Seahawks can address that by adding the speedy safety to supplement the back end of Mike Macdonald's defense. – Bumbaca
• AI pick: WR Jordyn Tyson, Arizona State
Barring major medical concerns with Tyson, the Seahawks aren't going to remotely be in range to land him. The order Copilot had its six first-round receivers come off the board was certainly confounding. – Camenker
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: 2026 NFL mock draft: Will AI outperform expert predictions?
