Baseball history isn’t predictive so much as it’s instructive. Even if batters aren’t hitting at the same rate as decades before, we can still know that hitters who live in the .190-.220 range are probably not very good at that skill. Pitchers with a 5.00 ERA are not good pitchers. And the same can be said about wins and losses, especially the Giants’ few wins and many losses.
If a team doesn’t win very many games, that team isn’t very good. And if a team loses a lot of games early on, the chances of them recovering to have at least a winning season — to say nothing of sneaking into the postseason — are slim. There’s history and then there’s just the game being the game and the Giants have demonstrated here in the early season that they are a bad team that’s probably going to be bad by season’s end.
Now, you might protest with this simple fact: there are still 128 games to go! A lot of baseball left! Anything can happen! Sure, sure. But that adage is the religious devotion angle of fandom. It’s a prayer. The eye test and the win-loss record are actually meaningful in this case because the results have been extreme. But you don’t need to look at advanced metrics or underlying metrics or even triple slash lines. The win-loss record is comprehensive.
In MLB history, 167 teams have started as season 13-21. Just 18 times (10.8%) has that team gone on to have a winning record. Five of those instances have come this century:
• 2016 Astros, 84-78
• 2015 Cleveland, 81-80
• 2013 Dodgers, 92-70 (Division Champs)
• 2007 Blue Jays, 83-79
• 2001 White Sox, 83-79
Here are all the other years when it’s happened: 1993, 1984, 1980, 1964, 1963, 1958, 1950, 1948, 1939, 1925, 1917, 1916, 1899. If you insist on being the optimism, one might be able to lob a “Hey, that just means some team here in the 2020s is due!” And maybe this kooky fan might be on to something. Still, that’s a wish and a prayer and a hope for a team basically winning the lottery.
This is only the third time in franchise history that the Giants have started 13-21. The first time it happened was in 1950, which is one of the years listed above. Those 1950 Giants, led by Eddie Stanky, Al Dark, Hank Thompson, Monte Irvin, Larry Jansen, and Sal Maglie were actually 10-20 through their first 30, then went 76-48 the rest of the way which included 9-,7-,6-, and 5-game winning streaks. That 9-game winning streak was shortly after the All-Star break and was broken up by a single loss that then led into a 6-game winning streak; so, they had a run where they won 15 of 16 on top of the other long winning streaks. The 2026 Giants will need results very similar to that, even if the 1950 team wound up in 3rd place for all that winning. 84-86 wins might be enough to back in as the third Wild Card. By the way, the other Giants team to start 13-21 was the 1984 team, which wound up 66-96.
But 13-21 is just one record tested against history. Is it the case that there are actually more examples of success if we go in either direction by a single loss? You know, could do some Hollywood accounting and say that 13-21 is basically the same thing as 14-20 and find a rich vein of fun historical turnarounds to compare the Giants to instead? Let’s be as desperate as Buster Posey and Zack Minasian and try it.
210 times have teams started 14-20 in MLB history. 40 (19%) have wound up .500 or better. There are a lot of recent examples in this bunch:
• 2024 Diamondbacks. 89-73 (missed Wild Card due to tiebreaker with Atlanta)
• 2023 Reds, 82-80
• 2022 Orioles, 83-79
• 2019 Nationals, 93-69 (World Champions)
• 2016 Yankees, 84-78 (this was the year they were deadline sellers)
• 2014 Pirates, 88-74 (NL Wild Card) — ahem
• 2011 Brewers, 96-66 (Division Champs)
• 2010 White Sox, 88-74 (the Yankees won 95 games that year to be the AL Wild Card)
• 2009 Rockies, 92-70 (Wild Card)
• 2007 Rockies, 90-73 (NL Pennant)
• 2006 Angels, 89-73 (the Tigers won 95 games that year to be the AL Wild Card)
• 2005 A’s, 88-74 (the Red Sox won 95 games that year to be the AL Wild Card)
• 2002 Astros, 84-78
• 2001 Mets, 82-80
So, it’s this record (and probably better) that has stuck in the stubbornly optimistic fan’s mind all these years. Yes, there is a degree to which the bad can be overcome. In Giants history, four teams have started 14-20, but only one of them wound up with a winning record: the 1990 Giants ended the season 85-77 after a 14-20 start. On the other hand, the 100-loss 1985 team started with this record and were 48-80 the rest of the way.
Hmm, maybe a worse record has some secret history of success hidden away in there aching to be compared to? Let’s take a look at 12-22 teams. That’s happened 110 times. This is the Mets record right now, by the way.
Just 7 times (6.4%) has that terrible start turned into a winning record by season’s end. The 2005 Astros (89-73) won the National League pennant before running into Scott Podsednik and the White Sox in the World Series. The 1989 Blue Jays (89-73) won the AL East, the 2024 Astros (88-73) won the AL West, and the 1974 Pirates (88-74) won the NL Central. The rest: 1996 Red Sox (85-77), 1988 Padres (83-78), and 1986 Reds (86-76).
Just 4 times in 70 instances (5.7%) has a team started 11-23 and ended up with a winning record. The 1914 Boston Braves won the World Series after finishing 94-59. The most recent occurrence was in 1973, when the Cardinals finished 81-81. The 1965 Pirates are the only team to start 10 and 24 and finish with a winning record (90-72). No team lost 25 of their first 34 and came out of the season with more wins than losses.
Okay, but what about that other adage? The one that says you should take the first 40 games to evaluate the team you have, then the next 40 to acquire the players you need and then the next 40 games to make a run and the final 40 games to either prepare for the postseason or evaluate for next year? In that scenario, this would be the deciding week that could determine the fate of the 2026 Giants… right? Sure, they could sweep and wind up 19-21 and they’d undeniably be right back in the race, but isn’t 4-2 more realistic as the absolute limit of what’s possible with this team at the moment? In that case, they’re 17-23. What does history say about that?
39 out of 202 (19.3%) instances of 17-23 have been the basis for winning records. The last time it happened was in 2022, when the Mariners were a Wild Card with a 90-72 record. Before that, it was 2015, when the Rangers won the AL West with an 88-74 record. Those 2014 Pirates pop up here again, as do the 2013 Dodgers. The 2011 Dbacks won the NL West at 94-68 after a 17-23 start. The 2007 Rockies had this same record, too.
So, if you’re trying to be one of those “recover from a bad start teams” but you can’t be of the 14-20 variety, here’s the 17-23 pathway. To get there, the Giants will need to win this homestand. Plausible, but at the same time, hard to imagine.
Look, it’s no fun knowing that the season is “over” at the beginning of May, but that’s where we Giants fans find ourselves here. We’re rooting for a team that is not dissimilar from the teams we’ve seen for around the past decade. Maybe some of the details are different, but the story is still the same. But maybe you find this hard to believe or simply don’t want to believe it. I have not really insisted that you change your mind here. I didn’t even research this post thinking I was going to hunt for data that supported only my position. I had an open mind and, admittedly, a little bit of hope because it’s still early in the season. And yet, there are facts to face: the history of the game tells us the Giants are cooked, washed, chopped, squashed, negated, irrelevant, and/or doomed.
Bummer.
